Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d64b8dc60faa9c94960168b7c8a12b10896e97da285bb56e7eb9704a6e1a2ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 18c | 40,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +10.6wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 19c | 12,701$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.15 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Yes | 19c | 8,243$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…97e1backed Yes | 18c | 5,471$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 18c | 3,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 18c | 3,088$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.9 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…82b7backed Yes | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…dd89backed Yes | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…91dabacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 7c | 1,873$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 19c | 1,794$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 19c | 1,342$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.87 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 17c | 1,081$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…a8dbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 7c | 906.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 18c | 888.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 18c | 669.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 18c | 600.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 18c | 556$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…bfd6backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…bebebacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 19c | 545$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…0c4abacked Yes | 18c | 540.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…893abacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 8c | 485.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…f357backed Yes | 19c | 384.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aa2dbacked Yes | 9c | 351$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…d4dabacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 204.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Yes | 18c | 200.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6952backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 17c | 125.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…2ae4backed Yes | 18c | 122.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1157…7e1fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…0146backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…b59bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…7f4cbacked Yes | 10c | 107.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…a734backed Yes | 17c | 96.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…cad4backed Yes | 19c | 95.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…e49cbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 35.4%40 W · 73 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…20fcbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…705fbacked Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will Chelsea vs. Benfica end in a draw?No won
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.