Champions League · resolved market
Will Chelsea vs. Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd72a5356a729a4a2d73699752edf60fe3192c044195e46203cedbd3d994073a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 75c | 13,171$9,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,292.67 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +10.6wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 76c | 9,231$7,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.52 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…97e1backed Yes | 24c | 8,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,648$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 25c | 2,400$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 75c | 803.6$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 25c | 580$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6e…1fd7backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ef…2516backed Yes | 19c | 520$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…ba11backed Yes | 25c | 484.6$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…31cabacked Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 19c | 323$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 20c | 256.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…c2b8backed Yes | 18c | 227.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…53afbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Yes | 18c | 172.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…83fcbacked Yes | 25c | 171.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 130.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 78c | 128.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…692cbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…70a1backed Yes | 20c | 124.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 76c | 96.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…5052backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…4d8abacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…ced9backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 76c | 56.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 23c | 52.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 78c | 45.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…dbf7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 77c | 39.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 76c | 34.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…bc19backed No | 77c | 20.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea vs. Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will Benfica win on 2025-09-30?No won
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.