NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4bcd1d427252ec425f918ac218bdd826f1dc3e856f7e45190a0be27b2f36200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 45c | 1,255$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 50c | 1,212$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 652.06$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.07 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 510.34$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 503$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 38c | 460$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.2 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Under | 62c | 460$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 41c | 412.54$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.65 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 37c | 151.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 100.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 41c | 81.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 20c | 60.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…416dbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 31.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…806fbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…47aabacked Under | 59c | 25.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. ThunderThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.