NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f08b7a6fe548ae4caa07d23f18cb7c979ac0738e9f85e11c69a97cc3af5474f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Thunder, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 56c | 5,146$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Thunder | 44c | 4,242$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.54 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 55c | 1,871$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Suns | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Thunder | 41c | 1,695$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.92 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…9f6fbacked Suns | 62c | 1,600$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 38c | 1,048$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.24 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Thunder | 44c | 1,005$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Suns | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 47c | 669.31$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Thunder | 42c | 665.37$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.37 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Thunder | 42c | 561.72$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.92 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Suns | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Suns | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder | 39c | 101.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Suns | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Suns | 52c | 50.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Thunder | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…fd21backed Suns | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Thunder | 43c | 24.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Suns | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. ThunderThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.