NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63b40d681139e2543c0ddb80a79222b9a5d9e6227e57a6773418e66fcaad0605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Thunder, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder | 44c | 1,886$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.71 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Suns | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 47c | 924.3$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.42 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Suns | 53c | 860.48$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.43 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Suns | 52c | 580.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.71 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 48c | 561.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Suns | 50c | 306.91$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…0938backed Suns | 54c | 296.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Suns | 53c | 280.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Suns | 52c | 278.12$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Thunder | 50c | 197.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…5061backed Thunder | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 41c | 189$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…b227backed Suns | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 47c | 184.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Thunder | 45c | 138.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Suns | 54c | 121.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…2c4ebacked Suns | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Thunder | 47c | 106.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Suns | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Thunder | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb28…1ed0backed Suns | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…e856backed Suns | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 47c | 83.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Suns | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 46c | 70.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Suns | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Suns | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Suns | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…a121backed Suns | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Suns | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Thunder | 46c | 22.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. ThunderThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.