NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b60a4d26a915bfb08a030931ad6c9b4a3928a2f7fafb12476a81bdcec7542df

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,028 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5d76…9168backed Over	42c	11,167$4,677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,489.94	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	56c	3,217$1,794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,794.28	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Under	59c	3,100$1,829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,829	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under	51c	2,882$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,469.63	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	44c	2,114$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,184	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under	59c	1,982$1,169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,169.49	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over	48c	1,492$719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$772.84	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	59c	1,335$787 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$787.44	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	57c	1,300$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	49c	1,052$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.92	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	57c	773$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.21	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	57c	733$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.41	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	49c	586.65$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.53	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over	44c	446$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.76	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	54c	356$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.34	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01db…16e3backed Under	57c	350.88$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Under	58c	264.02$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.13	165	53.9%89 W · 76 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Over	49c	229.06$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.82	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	49c	229.06$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.82	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…1bd6backed Over	49c	225$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.75	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4b…94c0backed Over	49c	215$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.65	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-66%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	59c	169.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Under	60c	166.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x466a…25c7backed Under	52c	153$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.56	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	41c	150$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	59c	150$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.5	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf45e…cb85backed Under	52c	149$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.48	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xae2d…4128backed Under	52c	138$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.76	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5006…139bbacked Under	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…6bffbacked Under	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	59c	77.15$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.52	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Under	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	44c	75.13$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.13	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	51c	66.62$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.86	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Under	52c	54$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	57c	51.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.18	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Over	42c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1760…c4edbacked Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	45	64.4%29 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under	56c	40.1$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02a6…9347backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc39c…416dbacked Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe318…3506backed Under	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Under	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	236	46.6%110 W · 126 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	43c	33.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.07	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f8…47aabacked Under	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…e166backed Under	63c	23.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	187	57.2%107 W · 80 L	-8.4wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under	59c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event