TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hawksof Cavaliers, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,890 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x185c…fa2fbacked Cavaliers49c15,900$7,791 inLost-$7,7912152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcebf…0706backed Hawks51c15,900$8,109 inWon+$7,7911952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Cavaliers56c1,843$1,028 inLost-$1,028.4439051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks44c834.85$367 inWon+$468.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks44c769.91$338 inWon+$431.696,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Hawks46c667.68$309 inWon+$358.91,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks49c548.82$268 inWon+$281.243,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Hawks47c278.72$131 inWon+$147.7223248.7%113 W · 119 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks44c255$112 inWon+$143.28,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Cavaliers49c236.73$116 inLost-$1168439.3%33 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Cavaliers53c226.42$120 inLost-$12022953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfde9…51d7backed Cavaliers49c204.08$100 inLost-$100100%0 W · 10 L-4.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Cavaliers51c185.27$95 inLost-$94.595049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Cavaliers56c178.77$100 inLost-$10020444.6%91 W · 113 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4734…4ed5backed Cavaliers57c175.44$100 inLost-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Cavaliers58c100$58 inLost-$5854951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Hawks52c96.15$50 inWon+$46.1511041.8%46 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6733…576abacked Cavaliers56c72$40 inLost-$40.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Hawks46c63$29 inWon+$34.021,10941.8%464 W · 645 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Hawks44c46.15$20 inWon+$25.8476247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Hawks44c40.59$18 inWon+$22.6360834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f64…621cbacked Hawks45c38$17 inWon+$20.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers57c35.09$20 inLost-$201,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Cavaliers57c29.82$17 inLost-$1716253.1%86 W · 76 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Hawks45c29.09$13 inWon+$162,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.