NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaec3b76b718189048ceaf37bbfc14d133c97e612b5a761c086893d956e8444c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 57c | 17,490$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 12,166$5,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,916.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 47c | 4,200$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.99 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 53c | 2,095$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.35 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Under | 52c | 1,828$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 42c | 1,250$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 42c | 1,118$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.57 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 1,066$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.18 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 48c | 1,037$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 865$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 46c | 822.98$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.41 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Over | 47c | 822$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.66 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…8a74backed Under | 57c | 689.47$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 641$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 42c | 581.74$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.41 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Over | 46c | 581.25$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.25 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 42c | 452$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.16 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 400$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 384.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c1…b4afbacked Over | 45c | 295$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 229.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 228$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 45c | 224.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 55c | 194.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 50c | 188.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Over | 47c | 183.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 42c | 168$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 54c | 158$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed Under | 53c | 155.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 45c | 116.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Under | 55c | 104.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 90.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 76.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 271 | 52%141 W · 130 L | -17.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 56c | 53.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…2205backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…c61bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Under | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…ed5bbacked Under | 56c | 17.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. HawksHawks won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.