NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c8247ec1e99ec0e51266c09af698fa3f63745c8553d021c79b4f7eaaefcd76a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 54c | 1,806$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.5 | 605 | 49.8%301 W · 304 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,066$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 39c | 529.15$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.53 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Over | 61c | 514$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.54 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 39c | 462$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.52 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 38c | 443.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.26 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 62c | 329.45$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.26 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 250.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 62c | 225$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Over | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 38c | 111$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…afd1backed Over | 56c | 88.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 83.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Over | 61c | 81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Over | 59c | 67.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…47aabacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…c5f3backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. MavericksGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.