NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a39a8f8cce3d8a5475f7a0bf3bc75c1256b738e55ffef16c749998fc1f37a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa117…a311backed Over | 58c | 24,000$13,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,978.62 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 15,399$6,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,557.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 42c | 7,612$3,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,415.17 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 54c | 3,353$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.69 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 1,765$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.86 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 50c | 1,524$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762 | 605 | 49.8%301 W · 304 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 41c | 960$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.4 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 42c | 444$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 364$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Over | 4c | 359.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 133 | 18.8%25 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1edcbacked Over | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 42c | 300.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.11 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 42c | 108$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 98.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…5a06backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…55d3backed Under | 48c | 76.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…6b2abacked Over | 26c | 76.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 44c | 57.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. MavericksGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.