NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a0dbb05216c74e7f49b0d301516282f07d64a680be1dc4e55710904f7e023f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Mavericks, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Mavericks | 45c | 13,239$5,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,957.36 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 55c | 10,058$5,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,533.51 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Grizzlies | 53c | 6,777$3,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,172.55 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 6,585$3,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks | 44c | 3,531$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.34 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Mavericks | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…da08backed Mavericks | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…4fabbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Mavericks | 44c | 666$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.04 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Mavericks | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Grizzlies | 54c | 369.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.19 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Mavericks | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Mavericks | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks | 47c | 239.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Mavericks | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 54c | 181.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Grizzlies | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…45cebacked Grizzlies | 57c | 126.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Grizzlies | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Grizzlies | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Grizzlies | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Grizzlies | 56c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Mavericks | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Mavericks | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Grizzlies | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…14efbacked Mavericks | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…a87abacked Grizzlies | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…443bbacked Mavericks | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Grizzlies | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Mavericks | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…0842backed Grizzlies | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Mavericks | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Grizzlies | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. MavericksGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.