NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c4b65beac5b7d9864bab7f7c4e5830ec2380610a0080b9e61d6acc24256546f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Mavericks, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 2,458$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.46 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a9…676ebacked Mavericks | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc782…70eabacked Grizzlies | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…f556backed Mavericks | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Mavericks | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 47c | 394.86$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Mavericks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Grizzlies | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 47c | 166.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Mavericks | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 51c | 121$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Grizzlies | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Grizzlies | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 48c | 47.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Mavericks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Mavericks | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. MavericksGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.