NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b31cdbf3d1a31d75e56d959b13e2e40d7ba5fc5557e6ccf5ebb6becdd961c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Patriots | 44c | 57,904$25,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,349.32 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Titans | 58c | 19,528$11,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,295.79 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Titans | 56c | 19,000$10,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,607.66 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Patriots | 45c | 17,600$7,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,679.95 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Titans | 55c | 16,573$9,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,115.23 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots | 42c | 15,053$6,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,801.45 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Titans | 57c | 14,562$8,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,311.41 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Titans | 56c | 13,000$7,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,260 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Patriots | 46c | 6,534$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500.58 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Titans | 52c | 5,597$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.44 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Titans | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Titans | 57c | 4,380$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.4 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Titans | 58c | 3,760$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.2 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Titans | 54c | 3,034$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.32 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Patriots | 46c | 2,495$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.3 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Titans | 56c | 1,873$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.48 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Titans | 56c | 1,685$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Patriots | 44c | 1,184$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.15 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Titans | 52c | 774$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.88 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Patriots | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Titans | 54c | 498.18$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.02 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Titans | 54c | 360.7$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Titans | 57c | 298.25$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Patriots | 43c | 291.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Titans | 56c | 266.07$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed Titans | 56c | 263.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Patriots | 43c | 239$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.23 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Titans | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Titans | 57c | 176.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Patriots | 44c | 164.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Patriots | 44c | 141.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Titans | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Titans | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Patriots | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Titans | 58c | 69.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Titans | 56c | 64.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Titans | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Patriots | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…279ebacked Patriots | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Patriots | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…7b41backed Titans | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Titans | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Titans | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…e676backed Titans | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Titans | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…71a2backed Patriots | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Titans | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)this page
- Patriots vs. TitansPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Titans: O/U 41.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Titans: O/U 42.5Over won
- Patriots vs. Titans: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.