NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51d04a314ce912d13022ee3f8d64a5feeefced184583b414ef055857d36042ee

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,478 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	46c	3,862$1,793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,068.86	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under	48c	3,344$1,608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,735.64	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over	56c	2,737$1,533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,532.71	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Over	52c	2,100$1,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,092	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46c8…6239backed Under	51c	1,670$852 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$818.21	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	52cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	48c	1,650$791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$858.5	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08dd…55b0backed Over	52c	1,190$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.8	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	53c	1,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	49c	914.3$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa499…7873backed Over	51c	589$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.39	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bba…b20fbacked Over	21c	509.99$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	89	50.6%45 W · 44 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under	49c	507$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.5	84	45.2%38 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Under	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	272	47.8%130 W · 142 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	47c	443.96$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.3	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	52c	378.63$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.49	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	52c	371$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.73	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	51c	343$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.93	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Under	48c	319$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.88	237	48.1%114 W · 123 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over	52c	275$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	339	50.1%170 W · 169 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…9188backed Under	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Over	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	180	47.2%85 W · 95 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over	56c	200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Over	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1feb…bdc1backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-11.0wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f91…7c76backed Over	51c	199.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	98	52%51 W · 47 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under	49c	183.67$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.67	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Over	53c	158.49$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a11…db4bbacked Under	44c	156.34$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.55	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	46c	150$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…37b4backed Over	51c	150$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…0722backed Over	51c	127.43$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.99	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.4wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x405f…45cebacked Over	54c	127.09$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.63	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	189	55%104 W · 85 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Over	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	158	38.6%61 W · 97 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	45c	99.98$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.99	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e97…7680backed Over	52c	98.64$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.29	41	63.4%26 W · 15 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f31…2c4ebacked Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Under	49c	85$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.35	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a6…9347backed Over	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Under	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e28…3e73backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Under	54c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Under	45c	55.55$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.55	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	849	57.6%489 W · 360 L	-52.1wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbc8…c57bbacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89e4…99eebacked Over	55c	36.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c7c…2f33backed Over	50c	33.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xffd1…8f31backed Over	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	252	47.2%119 W · 133 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	53c	28.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f8…47aabacked Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d7…c5f3backed Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe32c…db1bbacked Under	46c	25.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.01	163	21.5%35 W · 128 L	-20.3wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe706…6921backed Over	50c	24.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	-7.6wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8755…e1c0backed Over	57c	24.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	51c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	60	50%30 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7dda…5cbbbacked Over	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…f59fbacked Over	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94db…26bbbacked Over	51c	23.51$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e17…f5c4backed Over	57c	23.09$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.30per pick	54cpaid	+57%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed Over	51c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f9f…4b15backed Over	53c	22.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	99	62.6%62 W · 37 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd4…3ae9backed Over	53c	22.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa9…bad5backed Under	51c	22.26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.91	58	36.2%21 W · 37 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	49c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1961…d240backed Over	51c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Over	51c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5748…7b81backed Over	53c	19.43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5this page
Hawks vs. PelicansHawks won
Hawks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event