TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,015
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,106

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,015 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Hawks53c50,561$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,561.025952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans49c42,613$20,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,806.19,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Hawks48c39,822$19,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,584.3611535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8786…982dbacked Hawks39c10,100$3,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,1612157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48a9…cd76backed Pelicans61c10,100$6,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1613265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x059e…4a2ebacked Pelicans49c9,747$4,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7761637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans47c7,500$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5252,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans46c5,063$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.852,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9966250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans50c4,404$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.63,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Pelicans53c3,333$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.4928850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd29c…d4efbacked Hawks42c2,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4502458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb340…58c9backed Pelicans58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4502040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Pelicans49c1,960$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.430351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans50c1,896$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.566,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Pelicans50c1,796$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pelicans52c1,522$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.071,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pelicans52c1,196$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.982,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Hawks50c1,083$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Pelicans49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4904,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans43c749.13$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.273,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Pelicans53c695$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.3589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Pelicans49c599.98$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9945647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Pelicans51c501.79$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3895641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans47c500$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.52,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans55c408$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.42,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans49c364$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.363,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x905b…edc4backed Pelicans53c330.94$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Pelicans53c328.3$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17423539.1%92 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Hawks48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3335851.7%185 W · 173 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Pelicans49c202.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0113550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Hawks52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fe…6a33backed Hawks52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.318045%36 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01db…16e3backed Hawks52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa763…709ebacked Hawks50c180$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9019845.5%90 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Pelicans47c174.94$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2218235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Pelicans53c170$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.454951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Hawks52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7240346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Hawks51c106.9$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.919849%97 W · 101 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Hawks53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4740952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Pelicans55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5535447.7%169 W · 185 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Hawks51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4915247.4%72 W · 80 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Hawks52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1524955%137 W · 112 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Pelicans52c96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.926349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Pelicans60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024452.5%128 W · 116 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pelicans44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2280744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5210backed Pelicans49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158851.1%45 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f5f…99d3backed Hawks48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Hawks52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8517447.7%83 W · 91 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Hawks53c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.694465.9%29 W · 15 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked Hawks48c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.043161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x694f…68efbacked Pelicans49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.253046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa9…259ebacked Pelicans50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127856.4%44 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa9…bad5backed Pelicans55c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.655836.2%21 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5931…08cbbacked Hawks48c21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.922846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.