NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3517707a870dde115114603bdc62294587d04ae0fea3405fdc5b9c0de4920776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Hawks | 53c | 50,561$27,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,561.02 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 49c | 42,613$20,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,806.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Hawks | 48c | 39,822$19,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,584.36 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…982dbacked Hawks | 39c | 10,100$3,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,161 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…cd76backed Pelicans | 61c | 10,100$6,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,161 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…4a2ebacked Pelicans | 49c | 9,747$4,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,776 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 46c | 5,063$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.85 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 4,404$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.6 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Pelicans | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.49 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…d4efbacked Hawks | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…58c9backed Pelicans | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 1,960$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.4 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 50c | 1,896$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,796$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pelicans | 52c | 1,522$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.07 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 52c | 1,196$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.98 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Hawks | 50c | 1,083$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Pelicans | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans | 43c | 749.13$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.27 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Pelicans | 53c | 695$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.35 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 599.98$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pelicans | 51c | 501.79$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.38 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 47c | 500$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 55c | 408$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 49c | 364$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905b…edc4backed Pelicans | 53c | 330.94$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Pelicans | 53c | 328.3$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 235 | 39.1%92 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Hawks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Pelicans | 49c | 202.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Hawks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Hawks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Hawks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Hawks | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Pelicans | 47c | 174.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pelicans | 53c | 170$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Hawks | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Hawks | 51c | 106.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Hawks | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pelicans | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Hawks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Hawks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Pelicans | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Pelicans | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pelicans | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Pelicans | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Hawks | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Hawks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Hawks | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Hawks | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x694f…68efbacked Pelicans | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Pelicans | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Hawks | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)this page
- Hawks vs. PelicansHawks won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.