NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd245ce30090c42a0e46adbac33b6a742e3f0c160230604eda1ff1d16f845ecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 49c | 3,869$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Hawks | 52c | 3,260$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.5 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Pelicans | 45c | 1,621$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Hawks | 50c | 1,296$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 53c | 673.53$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.79 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 54c | 475.86$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.9 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Hawks | 47c | 423.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.94 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 335$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.54 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 50c | 236$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Pelicans | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…b511backed Hawks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Hawks | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Hawks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Pelicans | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Hawks | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hawks | 46c | 192$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Pelicans | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Hawks | 46c | 180.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Hawks | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 53c | 124.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Hawks | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Hawks | 48c | 103$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Pelicans | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Pelicans | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Hawks | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Hawks | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Hawks | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Hawks | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Hawks | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Hawks | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Hawks | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 48c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pelicans | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Pelicans | 48c | 24.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Hawks | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Hawks | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hawks | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)this page
- Hawks vs. PelicansHawks won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.