NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c00baa8190ab8dc6ff0f781a8236d7e49482739a01d06de4c7290d22c588d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 46c | 3,096$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Hawks | 57c | 1,513$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.21 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Hawks | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Pelicans | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 43c | 649.21$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.78 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 57c | 630.12$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 41c | 427.02$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.27 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Hawks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Hawks | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Hawks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Hawks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hawks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Hawks | 58c | 172.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Hawks | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Hawks | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cf…cb94backed Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pelicans | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4380…f900backed Hawks | 64c | 84.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Hawks | 60c | 84.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Pelicans | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Hawks | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Hawks | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Hawks | 64c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Hawks | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Hawks | 62c | 41.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pelicans | 44c | 35.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Hawks | 55c | 32.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Hawks | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Hawks | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Hawks | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Hawks | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)this page
- Hawks vs. PelicansHawks won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.