NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78aa8451633d63af85f891c464dea2d89d4a7d7025458dfbb5ca4e5d9213eb87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f96…f4f8backed Over | 47c | 5,404$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 48c | 2,780$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.47 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Under | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,344$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,013$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 859.89$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 52c | 794$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.12 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Under | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 45c | 700.49$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.49 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…d69dbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 56c | 270$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 196.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…07f8backed Under | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Over | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +12.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 54c | 72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Over | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Under | 43c | 46.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 42c | 43.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Under | 51c | 38.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 70c | 33.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Under | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.