TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,724 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs65c650.51$426 inWon+$224.994,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Thunder28c588.99$165 inLost-$16553134.7%184 W · 347 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder71c174.55$124 inLost-$123.931,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Spurs29c174.55$51 inWon+$123.934647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f7…9385backed Thunder46c108.7$50 inLost-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Spurs31c69.84$22 inWon+$47.8413946.8%65 W · 74 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Thunder37c60$22 inLost-$21.91,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Thunder71c50$36 inLost-$35.518549.2%91 W · 94 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…a940backed Spurs29c50$15 inWon+$35.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+234.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e11…8475backed Spurs21c47.9$10 inWon+$37.843745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Thunder79c45.63$36 inLost-$36.1347359.2%280 W · 193 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Spurs34c35$12 inWon+$23.185449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Thunder66c35$23 inLost-$23.11,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Thunder66c30.3$20 inLost-$2028547.7%136 W · 149 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Thunder68c24.26$16 inLost-$16.544654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder70c20$14 inLost-$142,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Thunder69c16.13$11 inLost-$11.1363353.1%336 W · 297 L-2.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder70c15$11 inLost-$10.53,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.