Tennis · resolved market
European Open: Raphael Collignon vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b46ffa54db0ce0e242e4887a48487764c5afd81763584ca26ed2476bbb0e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Collignon, Auger-Aliassime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Collignon | 26c | 7,000$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.22 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Auger-Aliassime | 71c | 3,754$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.06 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 3,396$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.17 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Collignon | 30c | 3,000$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.09 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Auger-Aliassime | 71c | 2,777$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 1,065$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.17 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Auger-Aliassime | 69c | 940$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.4 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Collignon | 28c | 800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…79c7backed Collignon | 26c | 773.78$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Auger-Aliassime | 71c | 749.96$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.49 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 618.56$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.78 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Collignon | 29c | 402.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Collignon | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Collignon | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Collignon | 30c | 333.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Collignon | 20c | 327.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 324.34$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Collignon | 33c | 312.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Auger-Aliassime | 72c | 306.68$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Collignon | 34c | 290.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Collignon | 30c | 237.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Collignon | 28c | 216.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 183.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Collignon | 30c | 151.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Collignon | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Auger-Aliassime | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Collignon | 29c | 144.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Auger-Aliassime | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…92dabacked Auger-Aliassime | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Auger-Aliassime | 69c | 119.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Collignon | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…e092backed Collignon | 30c | 65.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Collignon | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Collignon | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Collignon | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Collignon | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.