TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Knicks, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,742,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,960,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,742,912 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,000 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Knicks53c127,509$67,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,982.616846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns48c88,724$42,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,136.591,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Suns47c86,034$40,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,330.1959347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ae…3020backed Knicks52c61,720$32,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,094.212951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Knicks52c50,000$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,999.7717251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns48c50,000$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,999.9759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Knicks53c42,250$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Suns72c37,000$26,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,304.5322457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks52c34,364$17,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,879.372,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns48c28,139$13,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,611.512,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Suns47c25,000$11,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,249.9751844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Knicks30c24,869$7,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,484.451,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Suns58c24,110$13,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,210.510746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Knicks0c23,279$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.727917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Knicks0c22,885$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7740133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks37c19,478$7,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,291.125,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Knicks24c16,355$3,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,925.2756646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks52c16,040$8,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,408.682,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns63c13,606$8,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,049.521,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns68c13,194$9,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,157.181,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns48c12,870$6,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,679.953,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Knicks52c12,000$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,24011252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Knicks20c11,268$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.5859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Suns48c11,000$5,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,739.9835235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns47c10,000$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,349.971,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks31c9,918$3,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,051.543,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Knicks53c9,716$5,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,149.4825546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Suns48c9,277$4,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,851.9427247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Suns65c9,000$5,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,180.445664.3%36 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Knicks45c8,612$3,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,873.471540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks53c8,004$4,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,279.4961851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns47c7,800$3,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,100.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Knicks1c7,575$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.751,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Knicks2c7,449$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5464517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks15c7,279$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.032,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e3…48acbacked Knicks35c6,897$2,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,435.7114746.9%69 W · 78 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Knicks13c6,841$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.911,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Suns66c6,750$4,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.2527865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Knicks52c6,640$3,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,452.8815844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Suns48c6,300$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,275.9619747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Knicks52c6,150$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,19810949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Knicks52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1201,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Knicks52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Suns52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.9929748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Knicks38c5,812$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.2839744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Knicks44c5,805$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.6685344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks28c5,558$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.244,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Suns51c5,549$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.8948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Knicks40c5,381$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14035447.7%169 W · 185 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Knicks51c5,104$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.796454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Suns50c5,064$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.3517331.8%55 W · 118 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Suns50c5,000$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,504.2729037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Suns49c5,000$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,57538649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Knicks52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.8847043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc82f…460dbacked Suns56c4,787$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.421020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-65.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Suns79c4,754$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.0634456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Suns49c4,751$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.0224051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Knicks33c4,667$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5606851.5%35 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Knicks50c4,558$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.461233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Knicks21c4,446$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.4348347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks51c4,413$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.611,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Knicks1c4,367$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.671,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns48c4,186$1,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,196.784,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Knicks8c4,135$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.99938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Knicks25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011049.1%54 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bd…2182backed Suns48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0801540%6 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Knicks1c3,730$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.288820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Suns57c3,573$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.261675%12 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Knicks43c3,485$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.5352460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Suns58c3,445$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.447856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Suns59c3,412$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.9833632.4%109 W · 227 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Knicks42c3,385$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.4847856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Knicks54c3,353$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.8521450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Suns47c3,353$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.3217861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Knicks52c3,269$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70065750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed Knicks43c3,140$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.39742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Suns48c3,110$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.0222035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Knicks53c3,100$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64341553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Knicks30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Knicks53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59064139%250 W · 391 L+2.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5601,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5227…65aebacked Suns52c2,993$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Knicks38c2,926$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.721,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Knicks45c2,906$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.6361939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a59…9a2fbacked Suns77c2,899$2,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.2316863.1%106 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Knicks28c2,840$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.8189444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Suns73c2,752$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.536758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Suns55c2,642$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.146943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Knicks38c2,637$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0109131.9%29 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Suns51c2,589$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.127140.8%29 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Suns64c2,455$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.0516657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Suns48c2,433$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.3738148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Knicks53c2,397$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.5428742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Suns53c2,225$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.063,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x494e…c549backed Knicks53c2,222$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.7811836.4%43 W · 75 L-12.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc127…66e9backed Suns48c2,222$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.5511657.8%67 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked Knicks46c2,175$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.524235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Knicks47c2,111$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.9817646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Suns48c2,106$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.452,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Suns48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3315435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.