NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf8efb5e4b754a50e9b76381f07b3951e27f327c7f5b90697b249a74d0f10620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Knicks, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks | 45c | 5,675$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.43 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 55c | 3,213$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Suns | 67c | 1,515$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.52 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Suns | 54c | 1,311$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.24 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks | 32c | 998.85$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.63 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 21c | 917.73$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Knicks | 2c | 882.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Knicks | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Suns | 55c | 797.03$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Suns | 57c | 607.4$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.53 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Suns | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.05 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Knicks | 45c | 375$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Knicks | 15c | 340.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Suns | 55c | 310$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Suns | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Suns | 57c | 229.91$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks | 46c | 204.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Suns | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 43c | 183.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Knicks | 48c | 128.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Suns | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Suns | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Suns | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Knicks | 40c | 74.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Suns | 57c | 70.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Knicks | 42c | 64.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Knicks | 46c | 63.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Suns | 56c | 53.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Suns | 57c | 51.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Knicks | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Suns | 79c | 48.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Knicks | 46c | 48.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Suns | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Suns | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5701…e344backed Suns | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Knicks | 42c | 36.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Knicks | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Suns | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Knicks | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked Knicks | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Suns | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Knicks | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…3e20backed Suns | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Suns | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)this page
- Knicks vs. SunsSuns won
- Knicks vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Knicks vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.