TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,823,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,226,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,823,245 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 778 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4be1…aa70backed Bilibili Gaming56c73,524$41,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,403.973754.1%20 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Bilibili Gaming76c50,829$38,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,982.9714056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed T127c44,782$12,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,277.081,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked T131c37,427$11,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,441.0633838.2%129 W · 209 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed T145c36,630$16,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,317.631,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed T11c36,110$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.12072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed T111c34,976$3,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,757.6932150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Bilibili Gaming48c33,333$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,333.1653750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Bilibili Gaming55c32,774$18,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,748.2639964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed T143c32,254$13,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,832.051,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Bilibili Gaming55c30,000$16,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,399.9691854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked T145c29,133$13,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,040.1990348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed T119c26,937$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,053.8869741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Bilibili Gaming54c24,579$13,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,412.8948149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5593…6eb9backed T114c23,238$3,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.494537.8%17 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed T146c21,047$9,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,623.8654756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c6…0ff4backed T11c20,872$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed T143c20,697$8,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,899.7151146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Bilibili Gaming65c19,256$12,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,828.3146257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked T152c15,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80017555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Bilibili Gaming46c14,000$6,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,56059450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed T110c14,000$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.9544120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed T120c13,689$2,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,798.4951348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x134b…7456backed T118c13,622$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,485.461030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Bilibili Gaming55c13,289$7,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,032.5567760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed T123c11,500$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.9918132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked T16c11,286$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.0813545.9%62 W · 73 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed T145c11,110$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.481,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Bilibili Gaming75c11,040$8,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,711.871,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed Bilibili Gaming54c10,575$5,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,829.198259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed T143c10,214$4,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,432.8723447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…4c28backed T10c10,125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018849.5%93 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T153c10,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2501,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Bilibili Gaming55c10,000$5,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500.827637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked T145c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Bilibili Gaming57c9,167$5,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,950.331,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed T17c9,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked T115c8,359$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.6712446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed T138c8,062$3,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,098.92,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed T17c8,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59015333.3%51 W · 102 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Bilibili Gaming57c7,749$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,348.9257957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Bilibili Gaming55c7,636$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,436.369556.8%54 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Bilibili Gaming57c7,208$4,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,110.72,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed T121c7,146$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.4849461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed T146c7,000$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2203250%16 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed T116c7,000$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.9555639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed T132c6,939$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.7828859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked T145c6,667$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003050%15 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a9c…f546backed Bilibili Gaming75c6,640$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.053066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed T121c6,500$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38548533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed T142c6,474$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.146844.1%30 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked T126c6,282$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.786297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed T146c6,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.991,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3f…6deebacked T117c5,835$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.881435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked T152c5,728$3,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,005.730945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed T10c5,588$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.77260%0 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked T145c5,472$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,462.41,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed T139c5,402$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.433,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed T154c5,380$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.2230845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f3…b4e9backed T115c5,307$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f7…644fbacked Bilibili Gaming48c5,131$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.031250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd14c…5fbdbacked T114c5,041$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.1511635.3%41 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x475b…02b4backed Bilibili Gaming54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3002653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed T119c4,990$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.061175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed T152c4,975$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.985147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Bilibili Gaming72c4,931$3,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.781,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf030…12e2backed Bilibili Gaming77c4,750$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.1813371.4%95 W · 38 L+23.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked T128c4,682$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.4640637.7%153 W · 253 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb8…aa5fbacked T10c4,486$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.042261.8%4 W · 222 L-0.5wins0.00per pick2cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04c9…f1fabacked Bilibili Gaming55c4,288$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.4712132.2%39 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7875…ddf6backed T13c4,242$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.74540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed T146c4,209$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.881,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Bilibili Gaming50c4,191$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.1826549.1%130 W · 135 L+21.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed T148c4,125$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013831.2%43 W · 95 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed T145c4,125$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.258538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…2a2dbacked T142c4,000$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.3512458.1%72 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Bilibili Gaming55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8001,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa043…b419backed T119c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76010543.8%46 W · 59 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed Bilibili Gaming55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80013561.5%83 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed T119c3,843$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.566046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e47…34a2backed T152c3,789$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.241513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-71.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Bilibili Gaming54c3,673$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,673.1435353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed T11c3,600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed T138c3,442$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30013452.2%70 W · 64 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed T127c3,250$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8751,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed T125c3,178$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.29436.2%34 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed T119c3,158$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60058559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Bilibili Gaming75c3,154$2,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.1385742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Bilibili Gaming58c3,107$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.2798956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d5…79ddbacked T12c3,016$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6210740.2%43 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed T11c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4582…619ebacked Bilibili Gaming54c2,988$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.54560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Bilibili Gaming48c2,925$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.8719748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Bilibili Gaming52c2,910$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.21,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed T149c2,840$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.7932045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked T153c2,791$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.347754.5%42 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed T126c2,664$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.8440726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc0…d2cebacked T117c2,651$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.193116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed T153c2,636$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.728240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0636…c529backed Bilibili Gaming49c2,613$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.5211249.1%55 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.