TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,119 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ad…734fbacked Under56c524.49$292 inWon+$232.716047.5%76 W · 84 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Over45c391.76$177 inLost-$176.9842149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Over48c291.72$141 inLost-$140.9496149.9%480 W · 481 L+4.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Over45c291.45$132 inLost-$132.241,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde33…3af0backed Under52c206.71$107 inWon+$99.221650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Over36c174.26$64 inLost-$63.533,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under51c124.85$64 inWon+$61.062,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x016c…df21backed Under51c104.52$53 inWon+$51.518348.1%88 W · 95 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afc…997cbacked Under60c80$48 inWon+$3228647.9%137 W · 149 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbc…04a3backed Over40c67.5$27 inLost-$271266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Under50c52.4$26 inWon+$26.43655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Over59c50.56$30 inLost-$3037754.1%204 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked Under64c46.88$30 inWon+$16.8884360.1%507 W · 336 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bc…f246backed Under62c40.32$25 inWon+$15.32850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Over45c38.79$18 inLost-$17.5525551.4%131 W · 124 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over50c26$13 inLost-$13.11,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3d58…cd43backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$107122.5%16 W · 55 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0076…b1b6backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$1010673.6%78 W · 28 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa05a…dc25backed Under64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f4…c6eebacked Under64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.634254.8%23 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17d3…be06backed Under64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.633537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.