Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a278e2c9c68d0f1081115782e30ad82e0017d4681318e17cc8f3fd916c8149f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 36c | 1,600$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 65c | 1,498$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…734fbacked Over | 64c | 1,144$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.07 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…d351backed Under | 45c | 333.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.54 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 967 | 49.8%482 W · 485 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Over | 57c | 199.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 494 | 51.8%256 W · 238 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 49c | 192.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 381 | 54.3%207 W · 174 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Under | 30c | 172.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Over | 53c | 146.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 1,117 | 48.8%545 W · 572 L | +40.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Under | 46c | 120.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Under | 43c | 109.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…f437backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Under | 40c | 67.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 58c | 50.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +24.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…152dbacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 843 | 60.1%507 W · 336 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…0ff4backed Under | 43c | 46.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 62c | 39.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2,540 | 39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L | -79.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 55c | 39.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,343 | 49%658 W · 685 L | -26.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 56c | 36.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Over | 63c | 31.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Over | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…bb7ebacked Over | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…9c86backed Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 2?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 3?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 4?Bilibili Gaming won
- Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)T1 won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 WinnerT1 won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.