Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d2ae43cfee9a9d542fb69cc914f615a3973fbf28cb6e1b35cf33fc7bb86308f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bilibili Gamingof T1, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x751b…73fdbacked Bilibili Gaming | 68c | 11,776$8,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,768.18 | 325 | 55.7%181 W · 144 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…644fbacked T1 | 32c | 7,618$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…12babacked T1 | 31c | 6,093$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.52 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked T1 | 16c | 2,704$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.26 | 1,295 | 45.1%584 W · 711 L | +49.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…c3dbbacked T1 | 16c | 1,785$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.37 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed T1 | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 585 | 59.7%349 W · 236 L | +28.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…8cfbbacked Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed T1 | 17c | 1,029$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 282 | 50%141 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked T1 | 18c | 547.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…bc0ebacked T1 | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked T1 | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 488 | 47.3%231 W · 257 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed T1 | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 624 | 51.4%321 W · 303 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed T1 | 16c | 499.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Bilibili Gaming | 69c | 499.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 890 | 50.6%450 W · 440 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…7061backed Bilibili Gaming | 78c | 380$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 308$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 379 | 48.3%183 W · 196 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed T1 | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…8ec8backed T1 | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 185 | 55.1%102 W · 83 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb282…cde9backed T1 | 17c | 152.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…f9d5backed T1 | 15c | 132.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed T1 | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed T1 | 16c | 109.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…bec3backed T1 | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed T1 | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 332 | 63.6%211 W · 121 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed T1 | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…5eaabacked T1 | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked T1 | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked T1 | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 345 | 65.5%226 W · 119 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked T1 | 17c | 92.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 364 | 60.2%219 W · 145 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…2737backed Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 81.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 112 | 64.3%72 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed T1 | 16c | 68.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…2a81backed T1 | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Bilibili Gaming | 72c | 32.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +24.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…7c09backed T1 | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…854bbacked Bilibili Gaming | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 464 | 52.4%243 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…c694backed Bilibili Gaming | 76c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 386 | 55.2%213 W · 173 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)this page
- First Blood in Game 1?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 2?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 3?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 4?Bilibili Gaming won
- Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)T1 won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 WinnerT1 won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.