Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a17079044314b9a96d7e68d4d8623fb1abc3a7601045de68de191fce3cb87c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 4c | 6,907$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.25 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 31c | 4,462$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.89 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 34c | 3,928$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.32 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 35c | 3,607$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.57 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 62c | 3,539$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.76 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked No | 14c | 3,501$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.69 | 177 | 17.5%31 W · 146 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 65c | 3,327$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.89 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…200fbacked No | 0c | 2,885$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 26c | 2,800$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.52 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 26c | 2,700$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 62c | 2,408$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.16 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 71c | 2,167$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.64 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 75c | 2,128$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.63 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 2c | 2,041$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 1,941$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.24 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 29c | 1,721$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.21 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 1,711$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.68 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 45c | 1,673$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.58 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,527$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.23 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,283$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.57 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 34c | 1,279$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.67 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 1,217$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.09 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 1,216$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.95 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…7cc7backed Yes | 74c | 1,168$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…00eabacked Yes | 43c | 1,147$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.57 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 32c | 1,133$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 38c | 1,084$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.87 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,065$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.97 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 19c | 1,059$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.21 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 199 | 9%18 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 76c | 999.97$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.35 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 79c | 999.82$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.02 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 55c | 964.01$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.47 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8b…1fb1backed Yes | 78c | 926.4$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 31c | 880$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.87 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 57c | 831.69$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.01 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 47c | 799.44$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.36 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…40debacked Yes | 79c | 782.48$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 17c | 758.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.9 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 32c | 696.67$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.94 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 679$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 66c | 674.21$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.71 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 22c | 672.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…10efbacked Yes | 77c | 625.22$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 70c | 600$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 14c | 554.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.44 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 14c | 534.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 50c | 517.43$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.36 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 43c | 507.18$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.74 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 74c | 500$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 474.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…a962backed Yes | 47c | 471.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.93 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 52c | 466.04$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 48c | 459.94$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.94 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 61c | 450$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 449$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 7c | 448.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 149 | 12.8%19 W · 130 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 18c | 439.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 75c | 420$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.4 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 77c | 401.47$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 43c | 395.93$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…c57fbacked Yes | 25c | 393.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 56c | 376.81$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.53 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 25c | 362.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 31c | 356.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.88 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 346.17$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.59 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…3238backed Yes | 15c | 339.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 74c | 329.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 49c | 326.44$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 51c | 318.83$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.64 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 295.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 67c | 287.9$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 15c | 266.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed No | 8c | 261.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 66c | 255.82$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed No | 20c | 254.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 110 | 24.5%27 W · 83 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ffe1backed Yes | 42c | 237.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 62c | 225.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 54c | 215.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 15c | 214.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 37c | 209.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 73c | 206.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 202.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed No | 21c | 201.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 70c | 197.44$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 61c | 195$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 35c | 194.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a84…3788backed Yes | 31c | 188.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.03 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 186.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 185.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…29f8backed No | 65c | 180.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa60…c581backed No | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…24c6backed No | 24c | 178.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 13c | 174.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.