Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa79bebe9cdc67ce89c71c40e21dac719472cf00bc6999f891c6b8c95f88eb79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,639$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.84 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 5,310$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 30c | 2,344$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.55 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,071$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.77 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,531$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.96 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…ff26backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 6c | 1,349$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 27c | 1,219$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.25 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 12c | 1,200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 1,112$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,040$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 4c | 1,008$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 66c | 919.35$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.35 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 5c | 851.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 803.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 670.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 649.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 6c | 630$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 24c | 449.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 6c | 414.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 21c | 400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 8c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 13c | 385.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 298.95$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…c57fbacked Yes | 17c | 292.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 10c | 263.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 5c | 223.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 79c | 218.9$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 78c | 209.44$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 12c | 187.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 186.2$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 32c | 145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked Yes | 11c | 142$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 78c | 129.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 78cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360e…c462backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 19c | 117.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 33c | 102.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 16c | 102$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…e65cbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…4c45backed Yes | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…a764backed No | 78c | 77.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 19c | 68.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 74c | 68.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…e007backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…7fa2backed No | 74c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 72c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 25.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ae81backed No | 70c | 24.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked No | 79c | 20.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 78c | 16.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed No | 77c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed No | 77c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.