Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158c66b1f9ccd943bf20a2432865a07216d2f176386d954e03155199c9ed194f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 51c | 6,566$3,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,381.54 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 48c | 5,886$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.81 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 0c | 5,162$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 50c | 4,124$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.44 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 22c | 4,011$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.57 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 16c | 3,971$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.67 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,545$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.31 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 64c | 3,176$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.52 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 76c | 2,641$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.74 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 24c | 2,276$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.57 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,224$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.39 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,041$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.04 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 9c | 2,001$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,700$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.93 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 20c | 1,650$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.91 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,506$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.42 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,494$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.82 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 1,332$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.75 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 12c | 1,330$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,104$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 69c | 1,056$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.16 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 46c | 999.82$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.27 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 23c | 940.4$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.79 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 10c | 935.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 20c | 825.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.98 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 66c | 808.98$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.44 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 5c | 800$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 23c | 789.43$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.12 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 784.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 13c | 750$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 18c | 680.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 17c | 680$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 43c | 664.99$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.85 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 646$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.14 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 25c | 589.56$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 29c | 555.6$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 6c | 543.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 14c | 521.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…c6dfbacked Yes | 23c | 512.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 12c | 504.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986d…b351backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 26c | 483.27$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.49 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 25c | 471.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…1097backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 396$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.86 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 4c | 380.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 7c | 321.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 315.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 65c | 312.92$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 309$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 21c | 303.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 48c | 300.84$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…69acbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 36c | 286.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 27c | 271.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed Yes | 19c | 263.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 250.29$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 8c | 249.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 49c | 241.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 52c | 211.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 31c | 195$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 51c | 194.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 7c | 193.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 186.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a84…3788backed Yes | 48c | 184.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 183.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 179.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 50c | 176.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 159.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 15c | 156.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 14c | 153.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed No | 71c | 140.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 17c | 135.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 34c | 133.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 78cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…3ce3backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 35c | 119.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…89eebacked Yes | 28c | 115.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 36c | 113.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 111.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334a…d8b4backed Yes | 13c | 110.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 110.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 50c | 109.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360e…c462backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…d24cbacked Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…a4f9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.