Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs L1ga Team (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04c0194e58eb135638d1d5c4760dba4185696b8bdfd53646c2fa2dcf90324de8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof Kalmychata, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Kalmychata | 25c | 1,881$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.26 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Kalmychata | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.7 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked L1ga Team | 44c | 1,309$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.1 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 1,085$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.07 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed L1ga Team | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.12 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Kalmychata | 40c | 738$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.35 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1deebacked L1ga Team | 59c | 696.23$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed L1ga Team | 50c | 585.92$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.27 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team | 53c | 579.42$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.54 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Kalmychata | 48c | 500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed L1ga Team | 51c | 412.36$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed L1ga Team | 52c | 394.22$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.46 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Kalmychata | 54c | 371.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Kalmychata | 55c | 358.18$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.75 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…3a44backed L1ga Team | 77c | 357.72$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Kalmychata | 56c | 357.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…8698backed L1ga Team | 71c | 327.21$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…30c4backed L1ga Team | 74c | 302.76$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Kalmychata | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Kalmychata | 53c | 300$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Kalmychata | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Kalmychata | 6c | 213.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed L1ga Team | 47c | 211.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Kalmychata | 49c | 200.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked L1ga Team | 54c | 189.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Kalmychata | 31c | 185$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Kalmychata | 56c | 180.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed L1ga Team | 48c | 161.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Kalmychata | 36c | 152.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed L1ga Team | 70c | 143.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…023abacked L1ga Team | 75c | 101.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed Kalmychata | 42c | 99.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Kalmychata | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba9…2ccabacked L1ga Team | 66c | 97.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…934fbacked Kalmychata | 32c | 94.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Kalmychata | 34c | 87.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…3516backed Kalmychata | 24c | 84.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…67c3backed Kalmychata | 26c | 81.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…4ceabacked Kalmychata | 45c | 68.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Kalmychata | 20c | 68.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Kalmychata | 53c | 66.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Kalmychata | 39c | 66.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf016…b9c8backed L1ga Team | 48c | 65.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Kalmychata | 55c | 54.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Kalmychata | 28c | 52.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed L1ga Team | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked L1ga Team | 54c | 43.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed L1ga Team | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Kalmychata | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed L1ga Team | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked L1ga Team | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30c…4529backed L1ga Team | 79c | 13.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs L1ga Team (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerKalmychata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.