Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Spirit Academy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fb5f445cfd64af762c32228445ccfd7a042745f24905ec98a92a4d4d422d0ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Kalmychata, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9942…f1abbacked Kalmychata | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Kalmychata | 69c | 1,105$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Kalmychata | 76c | 973.2$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 853.36$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.43 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 693.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.78 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 600$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 518.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.29 | 573 | 55.5%318 W · 255 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Kalmychata | 80c | 423.36$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.72 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 406.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.25 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…6aaabacked Spirit Academy | 19c | 340.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Spirit Academy | 29c | 340.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…023abacked Spirit Academy | 25c | 287.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Kalmychata | 80c | 260$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Kalmychata | 79c | 253.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…f34ebacked Kalmychata | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Kalmychata | 66c | 191.25$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.23 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…080bbacked Kalmychata | 53c | 181.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 164.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Spirit Academy | 71c | 164.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Kalmychata | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Spirit Academy | 30c | 111.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…ed0dbacked Spirit Academy | 45c | 108$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Kalmychata | 73c | 107.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…528fbacked Spirit Academy | 27c | 107.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Spirit Academy | 14c | 104.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Spirit Academy | 29c | 76.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Kalmychata | 68c | 58.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Spirit Academy | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Spirit Academy | 63c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Kalmychata | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…0fbfbacked Kalmychata | 70c | 21.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e40bbacked Kalmychata | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…f56cbacked Kalmychata | 79c | 17.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2939…e083backed Kalmychata | 80c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Spirit Academy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerKalmychata won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.