World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1311c8dbbc5809f82dc46af627c40692b27b1f608a26f35e6d385861b884497b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 29c | 1,111$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…7335backed Yes | 5c | 1,086$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb487…65a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,063$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 68c | 746.89$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 505.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed No | 32c | 358.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…7362backed Yes | 68c | 284$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 72c | 214.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 36c | 199.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 29c | 166.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…9d46backed Yes | 69c | 153.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 43c | 129$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed No | 35c | 93.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 36c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 51c | 80.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4350backed No | 69c | 65.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 31c | 54.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…c89ebacked Yes | 72c | 51.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 51.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…dbd2backed Yes | 66c | 51.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 49.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 60c | 42.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 70c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 73c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Austerity" or "Spending Cut" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Emergency" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Footing" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "G20" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Gentleman" or "Lady" 6+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.