World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f5c8bcd43ab03c3bd01ade98bfc6684c530daac87827d8001ea1084b2eb860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked No | 48c | 891.02$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed Yes | 53c | 509.89$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…2606backed No | 53c | 449.48$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed No | 53c | 392.8$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 43c | 316.93$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 50c | 305$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes | 47c | 280.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 62c | 273.73$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed No | 46c | 220.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd49…c64ebacked Yes | 52c | 211.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 47c | 199.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 46c | 161.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…7f47backed Yes | 50c | 159$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 49c | 123$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…4706backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…92fdbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c3…5034backed Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 46c | 97.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 96.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.31per pick | 15cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 42c | 87.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…d81fbacked Yes | 44c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 81.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 46c | 72.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 49c | 62.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 46c | 62.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…769fbacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…c89ebacked Yes | 53c | 50.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…84d6backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 42c | 48.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…f300backed No | 46c | 40.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +348.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffba…d72abacked Yes | 58c | 36.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…4461backed No | 56c | 32.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c20…e02dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…5ddebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed No | 48c | 24.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…7fd7backed Yes | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Austerity" or "Spending Cut" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Emergency" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Footing" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "G20" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Gentleman" or "Lady" 6+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.