Fed Rates · resolved market
Will anyone say "Inflation" during the FED board meeting on October 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb64f17ff0cc816ca9734551cdf5b3bfbb23335fe9577ba64831521b411813fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed Yes | 64c | 197.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed No | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 80c | 98.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 68c | 80.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…fdc4backed Yes | 72c | 55.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 28c | 50.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…b092backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…e5c6backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…9053backed Yes | 68c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Inflation" during the FED board meeting on October 24?this page
- Will anyone say "Gold" during the FED board meeting on October 24?No won
- Will anyone say "Macroeconomic" during the FED board meeting on October 24?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Million", "Billion", or "Trillion" 10+ times during the FED board meeting on October 24?No won
- Will anyone say "Money" during the FED board meeting on October 24?No won
- Will anyone say "Percent" 15+ times during the FED board meeting on October 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.