Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x066cb8fef4853fa29b6534070957afd6b075351a739b614f6b63aee36f09a382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb79d…69a4backed No | 4c | 7,445$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 21c | 6,574$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.54 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 76c | 6,386$4,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,823.21 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 79c | 3,837$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.45 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 20c | 3,203$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.89 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +2,714.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 28c | 3,000$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 18c | 2,470$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.3 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 31c | 2,298$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.68 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 10c | 2,111$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.89 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 3c | 1,645$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,203$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 19c | 1,128$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.8 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 22c | 1,098$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 27c | 1,091$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.31 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 74c | 1,061$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.51 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 24c | 986.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 78c | 697.02$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.59 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 11c | 611.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.01 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 15c | 606.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.79 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 71c | 586.34$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.74 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 39c | 517.13$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed No | 75c | 500.21$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.27 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 499.99$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 18c | 484.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.04 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…7a85backed No | 5c | 453.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 68c | 432.58$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 78c | 386.47$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 14c | 353.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.37 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 19c | 313.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.85 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 28c | 264.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.66 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 78c | 242.84$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked No | 53c | 236.75$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…79d5backed No | 5c | 220.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 13c | 220.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 18c | 219.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.39 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…db4bbacked Yes | 63c | 213.41$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 19c | 210.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1febacked Yes | 24c | 205.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 184.06$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 73c | 180.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 70c | 152.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 58c | 138$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 136.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1706…9131backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33de…df3fbacked No | 76c | 131.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d94…4ec1backed No | 77c | 130.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 74c | 118.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 78c | 113.46$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e5…929dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 33c | 96.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…941dbacked Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…b7d5backed Yes | 22c | 84.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…d047backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 59c | 74.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…c9dabacked No | 74c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cc…59f4backed Yes | 26c | 54.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +290.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 76c | 51.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 51.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 32c | 47.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Yes | 64c | 47.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…300cbacked No | 74c | 47.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…3acebacked No | 75c | 46.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…6305backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…750fbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…7280backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…20a6backed No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…f22abacked Yes | 67c | 19.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2450…0248backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…ad26backed No | 71c | 15.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.