Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa6175851c12e59b3b69aef0f9978205a26f76aa852aa8328a0f9286465b255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06bd…8997backed No | 0c | 45,990$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 76c | 8,583$6,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.49 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 54c | 2,243$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.94 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 46c | 2,117$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.11 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 18c | 2,090$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.08 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 73c | 1,863$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.34 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 1,846$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 17c | 1,420$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 22c | 1,206$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.62 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 36c | 854.21$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.17 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 681.3$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.74 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 32c | 624.49$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.14 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 64c | 300.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.18 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 64c | 292.67$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.97 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 65c | 280$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed No | 62c | 260$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 53c | 210.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…1e96backed No | 55c | 126$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 53c | 107.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 38c | 105.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 36c | 101.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 90.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 89.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87d…2f2ebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0161…4fecbacked No | 51c | 69.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…79d5backed No | 54c | 58.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 44c | 52.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…675fbacked No | 59c | 50.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 63c | 43.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…f4e9backed Yes | 62c | 40.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…20a6backed No | 45c | 39.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 45c | 30.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 44c | 27.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 56c | 21.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…18c4backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.