Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during ballroom dinner on October 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e029b85db8b6bb7e80c50e2fdebd7b2295b95eea2a54b3a0f79993e69108cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 57c | 238.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.69 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0672…19c3backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…0029backed No | 55c | 87.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 61c | 58.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…9a25backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…cb15backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0f…3bbabacked Yes | 45c | 42.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…813fbacked Yes | 37c | 40.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during ballroom dinner on October 15?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15?No won
- Will Trump say "China" or "President Xi" during ballroom dinner on October 15?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during ballroom dinner on October 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during ballroom dinner on October 15?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Rose Garden" during ballroom dinner on October 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during ballroom dinner on October 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Slopadopoulos" or "ABC Fake News" during ballroom dinner on October 15?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during ballroom dinner on October 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.