Us Midterms · resolved market
Will anyone say "Immigrant" or "Migrant" 10+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2857ab028c7fbfbc68afc3237bae9dd41a18779bd22f33423087804c64ab1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,376$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…be5abacked No | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 57c | 370.41$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked No | 57c | 265.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f79…cccdbacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…9f1dbacked No | 56c | 71.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a82…bdc6backed Yes | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…e879backed Yes | 44c | 45.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked No | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 41c | 41.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 62c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +214.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…ff7bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Immigrant" or "Migrant" 10+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?this page
- Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Affordability" or "Affordable" 15+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Defund" or "Defunding" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Genocide" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Inflation" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Jew" or "Muslim" or "Christian" 30+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?-P817No won
- Will anyone say "LGBTQ" or "Transgender" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "National Guard" 5+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "New York" or "New Yorker" 45+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
- Will anyone say "President" or "Trump" 25+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Public transport" 3+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Rent Control" or "Rent Controlled" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 20+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.