Us Midterms · resolved market
Will anyone say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a2f28959d74df7d90815c973725de895067698d1d47511cc1e2c290001f0c6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d15…78c9backed Yes | 34c | 119.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 11c | 99.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…e879backed Yes | 20c | 98.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 21c | 77.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked No | 79c | 74.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 66.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 35c | 57.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed Yes | 22c | 57.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 66c | 44.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc849…236ebacked Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?this page
- Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Affordability" or "Affordable" 15+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Defund" or "Defunding" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Genocide" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Immigrant" or "Migrant" 10+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Inflation" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Jew" or "Muslim" or "Christian" 30+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?-P817No won
- Will anyone say "LGBTQ" or "Transgender" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "National Guard" 5+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "New York" or "New Yorker" 45+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
- Will anyone say "President" or "Trump" 25+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Public transport" 3+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Rent Control" or "Rent Controlled" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?No won
- Will anyone say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 20+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.