Earnings · resolved market
Will EA say "The Sims" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73c50eaa141976acf52c2f6e9e3fd34ae593b374c9fe5f773ca3d70078a05092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked Yes | 3c | 759.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…e2dabacked Yes | 6c | 483.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 24c | 467.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5439…6c5abacked No | 71c | 450$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 74c | 320$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 80c | 287.68$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…76f2backed Yes | 28c | 285$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 274$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 38c | 264.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +5.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 8c | 152.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 27c | 121.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…abf8backed Yes | 31c | 105.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc8…e152backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…f1d3backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 19c | 97.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 91.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 14c | 71.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…ad73backed Yes | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked Yes | 26c | 56.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EA say "The Sims" during earnings call?this page
- Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call?No won
- Will EA say "Competition" during earnings call?No won
- Will EA say "Jared / Kushner" during earnings call?No won
- Will EA say "Live Service" during earnings call?No won
- Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?No won
- Will EA say "Player Engagement" during earnings call?No won
- Will EA say "Saudi Arabia" during earnings call?No won
- Will EA say "Skate" during earnings call?No won
- Will EA say "Underperformance" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.