Movies · resolved market
Will "The Croods: A New Age" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ede5fd8729fe1fd04afb5902dcd037ece2a7d6c285c5ba9b640f955e5736cd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 69c | 1,189$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.62 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 33c | 1,040$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.04 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 60c | 927.43$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.46 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 40c | 352.39$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.26 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 112.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 54c | 91.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 88.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Croods: A New Age" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)this page
- Will "Murder in Monaco" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.