Movies · resolved market
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9de60b2a652a76f80990b01840a59f3a57665af573aa8ff985970e724a0d2d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,212$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 27c | 2,397$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…1dc1backed Yes | 12c | 1,648$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 71c | 1,040$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.55 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 4c | 780.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 727.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 336.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 335.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 5c | 330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 313.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 4c | 306.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee2…abe9backed Yes | 14c | 259$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 9c | 257.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 233.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 231.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 27c | 185.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1c…2ef0backed Yes | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…b009backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…055bbacked Yes | 28c | 86.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…40c6backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 65c | 78.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…4a12backed Yes | 21c | 49.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)this page
- Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.