Movies · resolved market
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e02449d04d4bb95e22d86504d118e58abfea58077b3b21917915ff708d64199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,612$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.22 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 10c | 1,028$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…78d1backed Yes | 14c | 918.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 9c | 749.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 5c | 595$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed Yes | 4c | 529.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 10c | 494.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 481.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 8c | 449.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…1dd1backed Yes | 10c | 363.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 34c | 326.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed Yes | 14c | 266.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked No | 78c | 230$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed Yes | 10c | 229.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 193.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 28c | 176.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 34c | 163.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 10c | 137$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 13c | 130.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 105.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddff…b4b1backed Yes | 23c | 97.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…a1d9backed Yes | 16c | 94.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed No | 80c | 91.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…ec1dbacked Yes | 17c | 63.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 48c | 50.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 40c | 40.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)this page
- Will "12 Years A Slave" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Despicable Me 2" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Despicable Me" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "The Great Flood" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "The Grinch" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.