TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Free Bert" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,515 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes50c3,025$1,500 inLost-$1,5005839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No35c1,035$359 inWon+$676.214751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6758…d25ebacked Yes13c945.36$126 inLost-$1262222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed No57c604.99$342 inWon+$262.786328.6%18 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes8c488.2$38 inLost-$38.4734651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes54c455.83$248 inLost-$248.322365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+108.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed No54c427.05$231 inWon+$195.643850%19 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes29c395.52$116 inLost-$116.271,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe61d…e172backed Yes53c349.99$185 inLost-$184.773246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No48c234.26$114 inWon+$120.694721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x223d…8ef3backed Yes44c207.32$91 inLost-$91.12268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8710…f9c7backed No70c200$140 inWon+$603100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes36c148.03$54 inLost-$53.831560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes18c140.64$25 inLost-$24.6648236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No73c112.78$82 inWon+$30.9820668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes23c83.99$19 inLost-$19.0817540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No63c83.89$53 inWon+$31.243658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c73.38$21 inLost-$21.071,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes31c50.67$16 inLost-$15.586947.8%33 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c47.46$38 inWon+$9.8320850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45e…5ca7backed Yes23c46$11 inLost-$10.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972c…d0a1backed Yes42c24.31$10 inLost-$10.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No56c23.44$13 inWon+$10.212938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2825…7749backed No66c18.97$13 inWon+$6.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No67c14.99$10 inWon+$4.893868.4%26 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.