Movies · resolved market
Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178eb39164f0a98a3220167a0b5db7f02a5e91fd2255c075ff6f59e71b06e8c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 509.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 15c | 443$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 35c | 410.71$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.65 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 39c | 398.86$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 75c | 269.07$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 257.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 206.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 18c | 204.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 68c | 178.75$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 31c | 177.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 20c | 169.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 14c | 148$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked No | 61c | 120.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 77c | 116$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 96.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…d0a1backed Yes | 40c | 80.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 38c | 76.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 75c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 69.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 39.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095e…4beebacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed No | 53c | 28.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 61c | 27.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…7749backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…6d82backed Yes | 44c | 22.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)this page
- Will "11.22.63" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)No won
- Will "Finding Her Edge" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)No won
- Will "Free Bert" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)No won
- Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)No won
- Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Star Search" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.