Us Politics · resolved market
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x201ffb8b250aebc9b69d8f4813e416b85cb31737832b1020c8136462157acd20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfca5…0462backed Yes | 21c | 6,713$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked No | 80c | 4,655$3,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 4,146$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.9 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 18c | 3,953$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.6 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a8…3193backed Yes | 24c | 2,858$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…7f0abacked Yes | 20c | 2,714$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 23c | 2,348$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.82 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1c…6e03backed No | 77c | 2,217$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,916$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…3655backed No | 77c | 1,874$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 31c | 1,678$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.29 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 72c | 1,630$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 14c | 1,588$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.58 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 18c | 1,566$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.15 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 77c | 1,463$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked No | 77c | 1,394$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,324$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 78c | 1,140$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…aa45backed Yes | 22c | 1,109$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 19c | 969.75$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 77c | 936.34$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 78c | 800$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 25c | 730$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…462ebacked Yes | 4c | 662.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 76c | 600.14$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.03 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f8dabacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 77c | 493.51$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 470$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked No | 76c | 449.95$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 77c | 428.57$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8690…46f7backed Yes | 2c | 417$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…3501backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 407.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 400.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 24c | 395.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked No | 76c | 362.48$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 76c | 342$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…4d73backed Yes | 10c | 277.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 11c | 274.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 79c | 207.89$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 201$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 25c | 174.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…564ebacked Yes | 23c | 172.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 134.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…165ebacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…7ae6backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…e45abacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 66c | 105.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 18c | 100.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…06d9backed Yes | 23c | 93.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…9d6bbacked Yes | 22c | 75.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…dc95backed No | 77c | 68.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…5078backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…91fabacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed No | 80c | 58.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7785…4a55backed No | 76c | 52.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…7992backed No | 77c | 50.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf58…d9bdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed No | 75c | 49.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…52a4backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 78c | 42.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…b4fabacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…447cbacked No | 77c | 27.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…84a0backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…b223backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?this page
- Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.