Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Kathy" or "Hochul" during NYC rally?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285eaed91e464d305e9d5c9842bf72d9c6f074d1e218baf460a6e9aa3a99455d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 57c | 256.54$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…6dc4backed No | 50c | 249$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b8…b240backed Yes | 43c | 216.55$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 50c | 208.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…b18ebacked No | 59c | 136$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 28c | 51.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…d796backed Yes | 49c | 40.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…8c56backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Kathy" or "Hochul" during NYC rally?this page
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Affordability" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 10+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 5+ times during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Bipartisan" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Climate" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Coffee" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Election" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Healthcare" or "Health care" 6+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Iran" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Israel" or "Israeli" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Maduro" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "One Percent" 2+ times during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Republican" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Twitch" or "Facebook" during NYC rally?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.