TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Healthcare" or "Health care" 6+ times during NYC rally?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,992 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa78e…74b0backed No40c1,102$441 inWon+$661.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x252c…391abacked Yes60c551$331 inLost-$330.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed Yes60c551$331 inLost-$330.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd12…9debbacked Yes63c48.24$30 inLost-$30.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed No50c39.61$20 inWon+$19.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No44c35.11$15 inWon+$19.661758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+62.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x49ff…b00abacked Yes57c35$20 inLost-$19.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.4wins-0.49per pick63cpaid-78%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No37c33.24$12 inWon+$20.94757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes56c32.5$18 inLost-$18.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa295…c129backed Yes56c30$17 inLost-$16.840%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.