Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Iran" during NYC rally?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2093d7eaf6f8fafab63ed282a9c08eb8e7a18550a1f2288064fc2e806b1281b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4a2…73e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,039$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…ce51backed Yes | 3c | 494.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 76c | 131.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…6dc4backed No | 39c | 113.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 32c | 100.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 66c | 70.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 25c | 66.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 35c | 49.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x708b…dacebacked Yes | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Iran" during NYC rally?this page
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Affordability" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 10+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 5+ times during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Bipartisan" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Climate" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Coffee" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Election" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Healthcare" or "Health care" 6+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Israel" or "Israeli" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Kathy" or "Hochul" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Maduro" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "One Percent" 2+ times during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Republican" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally?Yes won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally?No won
- Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Twitch" or "Facebook" during NYC rally?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.