South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2fde2c8b0fd810ead843f1d60d113dcff4f67b1bad6e4b35c51f06a12bb9f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 2,782$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.73 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 21c | 2,395$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 79c | 1,748$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 21c | 1,675$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 34c | 1,372$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 79c | 1,310$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 66c | 1,240$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 79c | 1,198$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 79c | 945$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 68c | 909$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 21c | 909$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 32c | 904$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 21c | 883$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 21c | 880$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 79c | 859$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 79c | 816$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +351.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 25c | 808$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 633.6$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.08 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 34c | 627$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 34c | 613$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 21c | 569$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 79c | 568$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +417.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed Yes | 21c | 556$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 79c | 553$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 21c | 552$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 79c | 549$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 21c | 546$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed No | 79c | 542$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +501.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 21c | 519$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 21c | 399$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 79c | 399$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 30c | 355.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 71c | 329.04$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 33c | 299.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 79c | 256$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +347.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…5269backed Yes | 31c | 228.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 209.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Yes | 29c | 169.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 158.29$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 71c | 155.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 78c | 123.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 27c | 107.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…e47bbacked Yes | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…0404backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 71c | 98.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 32c | 94.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 92.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 27c | 91.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 33c | 91.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 17.9%21 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…9d56backed Yes | 32c | 66.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 73c | 50.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…1d72backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 32c | 46.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 73c | 37.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 29c | 34.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…c8a2backed Yes | 33c | 33.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 33c | 32.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 80c | 22.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked No | 72c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-08?No won
- Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.